When a team comes out of a bad run, the improvement shows up in how matches look well before it shows up in points. That lag is consistent enough to be useful.
Results are the last thing to move
Points depend on goals, and goals are rare, so a team playing noticeably better can go several matches without the scoreline reflecting it.
A side creating good chances converts them at a normal rate eventually, and eventually can be a month away in a sport with this few scoring events.
During that month the table says nothing has changed, and the table is simply slower than the football.
Chance quality moves first
Shot volume and shot quality accumulate from many events per match, so they stabilise across a much shorter run of fixtures than results do.
A team that starts creating better openings has changed something structural, since good chances come from repeatable patterns rather than from luck.
The same applies defensively. A drop in the quality of chances conceded reflects an organisational change that will show in goals later.
Territory and entries move earlier still
Before chances improve, the location of a team's possession changes, with more entries into the final third and fewer turnovers in its own half.
These measures accumulate fastest of all because they occur dozens of times per match, which makes them the earliest signal available.
They are also the least conclusive, since a team can dominate territory without ever threatening the goal. Sterile possession in the final third produces impressive entry counts and no chances worth the name.
Why the lag creates opportunities and traps
A team improving underneath a poor results record is systematically underrated, and one whose results flatter a declining performance is systematically overrated.
Both situations correct, and both take longer to correct than most observers expect, which is why the gap persists long enough to be noticed.
The trap is assuming the correction is imminent. A gap can widen for weeks before it closes.
What breaks the relationship
A genuine change in personnel can make the underlying record obsolete, particularly if the departed player was the one converting the chances.
Score effects distort the figures too, since a team that keeps falling behind will accumulate territory while chasing games it has already lost.
The signal is most reliable when it comes from matches that were close throughout, which is worth checking before trusting any of it.